HockeyTalk

HockeyTalk: Playoff Preview

2010-04-14T21:48:00.005-06:00

With the playoffs starting tonight, it's time for me to give a quick breakdown of each series, along with my predictions for round 1 as well as the Final. My season in review started with the East, so we'll start this one in the West.
Western Conference

(1) San Jose vs. (8) Colorado

The Avalanche surprised everyone this year by even making the playoffs, but they started to struggle at the end of the year. The Sharks are notorious for early playoff exits, so this one could be interesting, but I don't see the Avs being able to keep it up when the intensity increases. It won't be quick, but San Jose will come out on top.

Prediction: Sharks in 6.

(2) Chicago vs. (7) Nasvhille

Chicago is probably the best team in the league this year. The only question mark is their goaltending, but even that isn't as bad as people make it out to be. Nasvhille will have to play their game to perfection to even have a chance against the Hawks, and even if they do that, I don't see them winning more than one game. This will be over in a hurry.

Prediction: Hawks in 4.

(3) Vancouver vs. (6) Los Angeles

L.A. is a young, exciting, quick team, but they lack playoff experience. Ryan Smyth will stand out as the Kings' star in this sereis, but Kopitar will crumble when things get tough. The Canucks, on the other hand, are hungry and eager to prove their critics wrong, so they'll be fired up to take this one. Luongo has been shaky, but I'm thinking he'll have no problem stepping up his game once they start to mean something. Honestly, if the biggest question mark facing the Canucks is the play of Roberto Luongo, they're in pretty good shape. Shaky this season or not, he's still Roberto f***ing Luongo. Come on. The Kings will make a series of this, but they'll lose in the end.

Prediction: Canucks in 6.

(4) Phoenix vs. (5) Detroit

Phoenix surprised everyone with their strong season, but offence is a question, as is their ability to win without a shootout. The only reason Detroit didn't finish in the top three is because of their injuries at the start of the season, so their status as underdog is in question. They have a ton of experience; they're more talented, and because of the injuries, they're relatively well rested. Phoenix will bore everyone to tears with low-scoring, dull games, but Detroit will make short work of the desert dogs in a series of close ones.

Prediction: Wings in 5.

Eastern Conference

(1) Washington vs. (8) Montreal

Yes, there are goaltending questions in D.C., but the Captials' offensive firepower will prove to be too much for the Habs to handle. Not knowing who your starting goalie is (Halak vs. Price) can't help either. Washington will take this one easily.

Prediction: Capitals in 4.

(2) New Jersey vs. (7) Philadelphia

Martin Brodeur has struggled in the playoffs recently, but he's still going to have enough to take on the Flyers. Add Kovalchuk to the mix, and they've got a strong all-around team. Philadelphia has struggled all season, and there's no reason to think they'll pull it together in time to get past the Devils. Game 1 notwithstanding, New Jersey is the better team.

Prediction: Devils in 6.

(3) Buffalo vs. (6) Boston

Boston has no offence and questionable rookie goaltending. They have good defence and an effective but boring system, but Ryan Miller will be too much for them to work on, and the Sabres' offensive depth will wear the Bruins down in the long run.

Prediction: Sabres in 7.

(4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Ottawa

The last two times these teams played in the first round, the winner went on to lose in the final. That won't happen this year. Neither team is strong enough to compete in the long run, and the winner of this will be out in the second round. Ottawa has played better than expected this year, and Pittsburgh has disappointed somewhat, but the two teams are pretty evenly matched -- when healthy. No Kovalev in Ottawa means the Senators are done in this one, again, not counting game 1.

Prediction: Penguins in 6.

So, there's my take on round 1. As for my predictions for the East and West, I see New Jersey beating Washington in the East final, and the winner of Chicago-Vancouver (probable round 2 matchup) beating Detroit in the West. The cup will go to the West this season.

I should have more time available to break down each round of the playoffs, and we can look forward to the return of CanucksTalk as I break down each game the morning after. Thus, until Friday, cheers!

HockeyTalk: Season in review

2010-04-14T20:25:00.006-06:00

Okay, it's been a few months. I've been lazy. Now that the playoffs are under way, I thought it would be a good time for me to take a look at the predictions I made at the start of the season and see how it all panned out. There were a few big surprises, most notably Phoenix and Colorado, but overall, things turned out pretty much how I thought they would.

Eastern Conference:

1. Washington

Is anyone at all surprised that the Capitals won the President's Trophy? They already have the best player in the league, a solid supporting cast, and recently, enough grit to look like a complete team. The question is whether they'll have the chutzpah to get it done in the playoffs. I predicted them doing very well this season, and they didn't disappoint.

2. New Jersey

Brodeur has been criticized all season for being inconsistent, but he put up very good numbers all year and took his team to the top of the Atlantic. Adding Kovalchuk was a great move, and it should put them in position for a long playoff run. I thought they'd finish in the middle of the pack in the East, mainly because of a lack of offense, but they've quietly had a good run.

3. Buffalo

Ryan Miller has played unreal, and they've had enough offensive depth all year to stay competitive at the top of the division. I was wrong about this one. I thought they'd struggle to make the playoffs -- but I did say that they had a good team on paper and that it would be nice to see if they could translate that to on-ice success. (so there!)

4. Pittsburgh

The Penguins had a very inconsistent season, due in large part to Malkin's disappearing act, but they're still a strong team. No team with Crosby will be bad for a long, long time. I picked them as one of the top four teams in the East. I was right. (Easy choice)

5. Ottawa

The Senators have also been incredibly inconsistent all season, but they really overachieved this year, finishing strong to make the playoffs. Losing Kovalev will hurt them in the playoffs, but still, they did a lot better than I predicted.

6. Boston

Wow. Just wow. I picked the Bruins to finish at the top of their division and near the top of the conference. I guess this just goes to show that you can't be highly successful without strong offence. Thomas crapped the bed, so it's a good thing Rask was ready. This team is done in five.

7. Philadelphia

Another disappointment. I honestly thought they had the pieces in place to dominate this year, but without any goaltending to speak of, they didn't get much done. They made the playoffs, butI predict an early exit for the Flyers this year.

8. Montreal

I predicted the Canadiens would be fighting three other teams for a playoff spot, and they were. They're not a bad team, per se, but they're not very good either. They're too small as a group, and not having a clearly defined number-one goalie is never a good thing. Too bad for the frenchmen that they drew Washington for round 1.

9. New York Rangers

What I said at the start of the season: "They won’t be a joke this year, but they’re far removed from being a serious threat. It’s too bad, too – Lundqvist is a fantastic goalie who deserves a better team in front of him." That says it all. I figured they'd be about where they ended up.

10. Atlanta

They pulled together nicely after the Kovalchuk trade, and they finished a bit higher than I expected, but I don't think anyone is surprised -- or impressed -- with the Thrashers' season this year.

11. Carolina

I figured Carolina would have a better season, finishing in the 5-8 seed in the East. I don't follow the 'Canes, so I really can't put my finger on what happened to this team this year. A big disappointment.

12. Tampa Bay

I figured Tampa would have a better season, finishing in the 5-8 seed in the East. I don't follow the Lightning, so I really can't put my finger on what happened to this team this year. A big disappointment. (note: yes, the repetition is on purpose. I feel the same way about both these teams and the way things ended)

13. New York Islanders

What I said in October: "They might be on the way up, but it’s a long time and a lot of early draft picks away." Again, this just about sums it up. They have the potential to become a very good team in a few years, but that's still quite a long time from now. No surprise at their finish.

14. Florida Panthers

Losing Bouwmeester (trade) and Horton (injury) hurt a team that wasn't very good to begin with. Dark times indeed. I'll say it again: too bad, too. I've always liked the Panthers.

15. Toronto

I can't help but smile seeing The Team In The Center Of The Universe finish last in the conference and second-last in the league... and not having a draft pick to show for it. Brian Burke, the pompous, arrogant, ass, deserves this team, and the city deserves him. Here's to "I don't believe in the future" Burkie spending five years ruining a team that, again, wasn't all that good to begin with.

Western Conference

1. San Jose

Once again, the Sharks had an excellent regular season. Heatley wasn't as good as some people expected he would be, but this is still a very solid team. I still don't think they have the heart for the playoffs, but we'll see what happens when they go up against the Avs. I predicted them to finish high, and they did.

2. Chicago

The Hawks are clearly the favorite in the West. They have a strong, deep offence, a strong, deep defence, and (somewhat) reliable goaltending. They have to get it done this year, so look for them to be very hungry in the playoffs. Huet and Niemmi will be the only question marks for them this year.

3. Vancouver

Offensive depth in Vancover? Who knew? They've improved their scoring; they got some defensive depth and mobility, and they play just gritty enough to get things done. This is the best team the Canucks have had since '93, and they've got a very good chance to win it all this year. Luongo has been shaky, and injuries to the defence could be a concern, but I have to believe in this team.

4. Phoenix

Wow. Who saw this coming? If Dave Tippet doesn't win the Jack Adams this year, there's something very wrong with the people who vote for this award. Phoenix has been consistent all ear, an they certainly deserve to be in their position. I have some suspicions about the legitimacy of a league-owned team finishing near the top of the conference, but that's just my opinion. They have had to rely a lot on the shooutout to win game this year, so that could hurt them, but it's been a good run. It's unfortunate for the Coyotes and their fans (both of them) that they have to face Detroit in the first round.

5. Detroit

The only surprise here is that the Wings didn't finish higher. They had a lot of injuries early on, but this team is too good and too complete to not make the playoffs and be considered a heavy favorite. This is a team that's played 11 plaoyoff rounds in the past three seasons and won nine of them. They won't go away quietly.

6. Los Angeles

I'm quite surprised at L.A.'s season. I thought they'd improve on last year, but I didn't think they'd finish in the playoffs. Good for them. They have a young, exciting team that will be very fun to watch during the playoffs and next season. However, they'll be out quick against a hungry Canucks team. Quoting Johnny Depp from Charlie and The Cocolate Factory: "You're just happy to be here, aren't you?" They won't have the gas in the tank to make any kind of splash in the post-season.

7. Nashville

As I said at the start of the season, they're not a bad team. They're not a good team either. They played well enough without a lot of talent to make it into the playoffs, but they'll fall hard against the 'Hawks.

8. Colorado

I really thought the Avalanche would be fighting with the Coyotes for last in the conference. They ended up fighting with Phoenix, for sure, but it was for playoff positioning. A very pleasant surprise, but I think it will be over quick against the Sharks.

9. St. Louis

I thought they would finish higher based on the great end to their season last year, but something was missing for the Blues this season. They can always hope that things go right next year.

10. Calgary

Again, I have to laugh at this one. Flames fans were so smug at the start of the year, going on about their "Olympic lock" defence, goaltending, and forwards, it's really nice to see them quiet down so much. I did say the Flames would probably finish in the playoffs, but I also left a note that it wouldn't be a shock to see them struggle to make the playoffs -- and they did. This is an aging team with no offensive depth, no defensive depth, and a clearly misguided GM. With no prospects to speak of, the future looks very bleak for the Flames. Couldn't have happened to a better team.

11. Anaheim

This one surprised me. I figured they'd be in the top six. Obviously their losses hurt more than I predicted. Funny how the last three teams to trade Chris Pronger have missed the playoffs the following season.

12. Dallas

No surprise here. The rebuild has begun in Texas. Farewell to Mike Modano. Even though he always tended to burn the Oilers and Canucks, he has always been one of my favorite players.

13. Minnesota

Again, no surprise. The Wild just aren't a very good team. Havlat is no Gaborik, and the new coach's system hasn't produced any better results. It's a shame, as apparently Minnesota boasts some of the best hockey fans in the U.S. They certainly deserve better than this.

14. Columbus

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, no surprise here. They have a few great players, a good goalie, and a good coach, but the team just isn't good enough to be taken seriously by anyone.

15. Edmonton

I'm shocked by this, but it was a blessing in disguise as it's provided the Oilers with a chance to truly rebuild. Hopefully they don't screw it up next year by rushing Seguin/Hall into the lineup. Things should be very good in Edmonton in two or three years.

Hey, would you look at that? I'm done. Look for my playoff preview to follow.

Canucks Talk: Time to worry?

2009-12-10T22:18:00.002-07:00

First of all, my apologies for not updating the blog. November was a bit hectic for me, and I didn't get a chance to do any work -- at all -- on the blog or on the video project. I'll post the December highlights at the end of the month, and at some point, I'll post the highlights from November, just so they're up there. I do plan on updating this blog again, at least weekly.

Now, on to the topic at hand. I wasn't worried about the Canucks' brutal start this season. I wasn't even worried at the 20-game mark, when they were only 10-10-0. I've always maintained that the first 20 games don't really say anything about the team and their strengths as a whole. Now, though, I'm starting to worry. We're now seeing a trend -- and this isn't a new thing for this team -- of glaring inconsistency. I made a few statements, albeit not publically, about their most recent four-game road trip.

Essentially, I said that the Canucks would need six points on this trip, whether that meant going 3-1-0 or 2-0-2, to stay competitive, silence some of the critics, and show that they're the team everyone said they would be at the start of the season. They were mostly recovered from injury and Luongo has his slow start behind him, so this was the time to show what they were made of. After two strong games against the Devils and Flyers, they crapped the bed, so to speak, against the Hurricanes and Predators. My concern is that this is what they're made of. I really, really hope not, but it is very alarming.

I've got a pretty good track record with these kind of predictions. In 2006-07, right before the trade deadline, the Oilers had a road trip -- my memory is a bit fuzzy, but I think it was a six-game trip. I told my friends at the start of the trip that if Edmonton didn't pick up at least nine points on the trip, Ryan Smyth would get traded at the deadline. Sure enough, they only got eight points, and Smytty was gone (Once again, the details are fuzzy, but that was the gist of it). At the start of last season, I predicted that the Canucks would win the division. Everyone laughed at me, but I was so sure of it that I made a $100 bet with a friend of mine. He thought I was a fool for making this bet, but he was eating crow in April when I walked away with his cash!

Anyways, my point: The Canucks are starting an eight-game homestand tonight, and they need 12 points to stay competitive in the division, the conference, and the league. If they fail to do this, making the playoffs isn't quite a lost cause yet, as there will still be another 40 games to play, but it will make things a lot harder for them. In short, this homestand is crucial. As I write this, The Canucks are up 4-2 against Atlanta in the third period, so so far so good. Things are going mostly right, but the boys are still taking a fefw too many stupid penalties. On this trip, I'll document their record and show how many points out of the available points they'll need and determine whether they've been successful or not.

Why the sudden slide? I really can't put my finger on it. The same thing happened last January, where nothing seemed to go well. They pulled themselves out of that, only to go back into the same useless funk against Chicago. This season, they'll play a couple of great games, and then come out with absolutely no effort and get beat by teams that have no business beating them. I don't know if there are problems in the dressing room, problems with the coaching staff, or problems with personnel in general, but I get the feeling there's something really wrong with that team that's dragging morale WAY down and causing the team to play this poorly. If they don't pull things together soon, something will need to change, whether it's a trade, a benching, or a coach firing (which would get my vote -- more on my dislike for Vigneault in a future post).

I will never stop being a Canucks fan, and I firmly believe that this is the strongest team the Canucks have had in 15 years, but they need to play like it, and if they don't, it's going to be harder and harder for me to keep my optimism. Hope is not lost yet, but it's slipping away, and there needs to be a major change before it can be firmly in grasp again.

That's it for tonight. As I said, I'll keep this blog updated more regularly from now on and keep providing my insight. Until next time, Cheers!

Canucks This Week: No videos

2009-11-17T21:17:00.002-07:00

I haven't been feeling well the last little while, and I've been having troubles capturing the games, so I'm quite a bit behind in splitting the clips to make the weekly highlight videos. Unfortunately, this means I'm going two weeks without posting anything new. However, I will have a new video up on November 23rd, with three weeks of game highlights! Stay tuned! Tomorrow, I'll make a post about the NHL at the 20-game mark and compare it to my preseason predictions, and I'll post a Canucks This Week blog entry later in the week with my breakdown of the team over the past little while. Things will get back on track soon, I promise!

Until next time,
Mike

Canucks This Week: Weeks 3 and 4, October 12th to 25th, 2009

2009-10-27T22:55:00.001-06:00

All right, 6 games, 6 minutes, a whole lot of great saves, hits, fights, and goals! Here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEf32DcAw5E

Let me know what you think!

Canucks This Week: October 21st, 2009

2009-10-21T22:59:00.004-06:00

What a week! Another tough loss to the Flames, a tight win against the Wild, a close loss to Edmonton, and a much-needed win against the Black Hawks. The Canucks finally got their first road win -- and it couldn't have come against a better team -- and Luongo looks like he's finding his game. Here's my breakdown of the last four games and a look at what's ahead:

What will it take to extinguish the Flames?

So the Canucks started out fairly strong against Calgary -- a couple of fights early on to set the tone, a lot of decent chances, and some quality stops by Luongo. What the hell happened? They came out so flat in the second period, I wasn't surprised at all to see them go down to that team. I don't understand that.

I really think the Flames are overrated, so why can't the Canucks beat them? Maybe it was just a case of them overthinking the game. Maybe they got it so far in their heads that they needed revenge that they just couldn't stick to the basics to come out ahead. They played all right in the third, but it really seemed more like the Flames were letting up a bit, and it's only natural for the team that's down to press hard in the late stages of the game. Another bad game for Louie; let's hope it's his last. We play Calgary again in December; I'm sure by then the Canucks will be firing on all cylinders and they'll get their revenge.

The Wild -- still Mild.

That was a dull game. Looking at that, it's no wonder that these teams are at the bottom of the division. Both teams played a tight defensive game, which can be exciting, depending on how they're playing it, but this had New Jersey-Anaheim '03 written all over it. Luongo let in one weak goal, but he was otherwise solid. I think he took the bad game on Friday and decided it's time to buckle down. His play since then has supported this theory.

With this whole game, it really looked like both teams were aware of how badly they've struggled, and they were just trying to make sure they didn't get embarrassed: playing to "not lose," which is one of the things I hate the most about Vigneault's coaching style (You have to play to win if you want to win big. Playing to not lose won't work against the good teams. See Vancouver-Chicago, round two, game six, 2009 NHL Playoffs for proof). It was good that the Canucks won this one, but it's not something that will be hard to forget.

Edmonton -- just a little more time???

Everyone was talking about how the Canucks could have tied it if they just had a few more seconds, blah, blah, blah... It doesn't make up for the fact that they played like crap for 40 minutes in that game. In the first period, they were fired up, going hard, and outplaying the Oilers, until the midway point.

They didn't get going again until they were down by a goal with 10 minutes left in the third period. I don't know what happened to them. They got outworked, outhit, and outplayed by the Oilers, and all that's left are excuses: Khabibulin was on fire, the team was tired from travel, Rexall Place is a tough arena to play in, the refs called a bad game. Let's break these down.

Khabibulin was on fire: Yes, he played well, but all the shots were from outside. No one went to the net to screen him or work for rebounds. When you're not scoring goals, you need to get back to the basics and score some "ugly" ones. When the game is over, all that matters is how many more you scored than your opponent, not how nice they all looked.

Travel: Sure, that was their third game in four days, but it's not like the travel from Calgary to Vancouver to Edmonton is worse than what they've dealt with in the past. There's no excuse to play that poorly for over half the game. Don't forget they had only one game in the week prior to that. They had plenty of rest before this string of games.

Rexall is a tough arena to play in: The Oilers were 18-17-6 at home last year. It's not that tough to win in Edmonton. Sure, they're a better team under Quinn, but that's another bad excuse.

Reffing: The bad calls went both ways all night. This was a classic case of the refs "evening up" the tally -- they'd respond to a missed call by calling a bad one on the next play; a bad call would result in a missed call against the other team on another play, etc. You can't blame the refs for this one.

The only excuse the Canucks have -- and Ryan Kesler, to his credit, said it publicly -- is that they got outworked by a team that didn't work that hard. Another tough road loss.

Chicago: An early-season turning point?

Well, this has been a long time coming. After choking against the 'Hawks last year, I don't know of any Canuck fan who hasn't been eagerly, and nervously given the poor start, waiting for this one. My PVR malfunctioned, so I didn't get to see the first period, but what I saw was a Canucks team who knew exactly what they needed to do: play their game and play it better than the 'Hawks played theirs.

The Canucks outworked the Black Hawks in most areas, but it was still a fairly even game. Luongo was outstanding -- neither of the Chicago goals were his fault -- and they did the one thing they failed to do in the playoffs against Chicago: FORECHECK! That was the difference tonight -- that and Mitchell's hit on Jonathan Toews, which TSN accurately called the "TSN Turning Point" tonight. When they got the lead, instead of trying to sit on it with five minutes left, which is precisely what killed them this Spring, they kept pressing, keeping the Black Hawks pinned in their end, and they kept going with strong positional play when things went in the other direction.

This is the kind of game the Canucks need to play from now on, especially with all the injuries, and I really hope they recognize that and carry it forward for the rest of the year. Finesse isn't what will win them the Cup this year; it's got to be because of hard work.

Looking Ahead

For the upcoming week, the Canucks are playing Saturday at home against Toronto, Sunday at home against Edmonton, and Tuesday at home against Detroit.
Unless they overlook the Leafs, this one should be easy. They are a complete joke, even more than I thought they would be this season. It will be a completely devastating loss if they come off a great win against Chicago with a stinker to Toronto.
Edmonton? Fatigue might be the factor here, but again, that's not just another weak excuse they don't need. Look for them to take their .500 record against the Oilers, play strong, and smoke them the way they should have on Monday.
Detroit, despite their slow start, will be a challenge. We always have trouble playing the Wings, and Tuesday will be no different -- don't let their record fool you. It's going to take more of the stuff they showed against Chicago and less of what they brought to Edmonton if they're going to beat this team.

Final Thoughts

Watching the game live in Edmonton on Monday, there was one big thing I noticed, and that was the play of Shane O'Brien. I've never been a fan of his. I think he takes way too many penalties and is too slow a skater to really be an impact player. However, watching him closely the other night, I saw a guy who finishes his checks regularly, plays a great positional game, and really shows some good hockey sense. He still has a tendency to take dumb penalties, but they have been going down this year. I'm no longer a hater, and while I won't go as far as to say he's one of my favorites on this team, I do now see what so many others have been saying about him since the Canucks acquired him last year -- he's a great asset that this team will regret losing.

Also, it shouldn't go without noting that Michael Grabner scored his first NHL goal tonight. Good for him! Here's hoping he has a great career as a Canuck.

I've been saying all year long so far that it's no time to panic: not when they started off 0-3, not when two more key players go hurt, and certainly not now. The slow start was never something to worry about; if they kept playing badly after the 10-or-20-game point, then I'd be a little worried. I really think they started to right the ship on Saturday, and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect wins in all three of their next games. Until next week, thanks for reading Canucks This Week!

Canucks This Week: No video this week

2009-10-21T20:03:00.001-06:00

I just wanted to post an update about the video project. I had a busy weekend, so I couldn't get the Friday and Saturday games transferred to my PC. I went to the game on Monday, and I was helping a friend move on Tuesday, so I haven't had a chance to work on it. I decided that watching the game tonight was more important than working on the video. If I put the video together tomorrow, it would be several days and two games behind, so I decided that I'll make a video on Monday of highlights of the previous two weeks. Check on October 26th for highlights from weeks 3 and 4, with seven games worth of highlights! Sorry about the delay...

HockeyTalk: Talking Cap

2009-10-17T20:32:00.003-06:00

Nick Kypreos wrote a great article on Sportsnet's website talking about the cap and how it's destroying the chance for teams to grow together and stay competitive as a unit. I couldn't agree more. I've been talking to my friends about this since the lockout ended. When I saw that the cap was based on a team's total salary, I said something along the lines of, "This is going to hurt teams in a few years when they can't afford to keep their draft picks around and keep the team together." Sure enough, this is what's happening.

I'm not necessarily in favor of "dynasties." As someone wrote in the comments on Kypreos' article, a dynasty is only good for the team enjoying it; it can make fans of the other teams indifferent since it becomes a foregone conclusion that the dynasty team will win. That can really hurt the league in the long run, but there is something to be said about a team being able to hold on to their players as they mature and become better.

How many fans are tired of seeing their favorite players leave, going to the team offering them the most money? It got to the point where people would be so reluctant to buy a jersey with a name on the back, since you had no idea if that player would even still be with the team a few years later. (How many Flames fans with Fleury jerseys feel this way?) Players like Sakic, Yzerman, Lidstrom, Modano, and Linden (sure, he got traded, but his heart was always with Vancouver, and he came back) are rare players I really admire: they stay with one team for their entire careers, even taking below market value to stay with the team. I love what's happening now, even though it is a result of the cap, where players are signing these 12-year contracts, making sure they stay with one team for their whole professional playing careers.

What I don't like seeing is players who want to stay with their team being forced out because their clubs can't keep them under the cap. Kypreos's article focuses a lot on the Black Hawks, and rightly so. They've got one of the most exciting teams in the league, but it's only going to last another year or so before they have to break up their core; how is that good for the game? Vancouver might not be able to keep Ryan Kesler on their roster -- even though he's indicated that he'll take below market value to stay in Vancouver -- not because they can't afford his salary, but because they can't keep the rest of their core together and stay under the cap. This can severely cripple a team, and I can't believe for a second this is in the spirit of the salary cap.

Parity, in theory, is a good thing. The NHL boasts that they've achieved parity now and that every team can compete on an even level. That's good, sure, but when you can't identify with the players on your team, I really don't see the advantage. An argument can be made that the team-based cap will keep salaries down overall and that these players should just take cuts if they want to stay on their team, but A, there's no way the PA will buy that argument; and B, these players have earned these raises. Who's to tell them they shouldn't take their market value? Clearly, something needs to be done.

I thought of this last year when I first srtarted paying attention to all the talk about Chicago's potential problems: I think there needs to be a system in place that reduce's a player's cap hit for each year they've been with one team. For the sake of an example, let's make it a 5 percent deduction in the cap hit per full season played. Roberto Luongo is in his fourth season with the Canucks, so this would equal a 20 percent cap-hit deduction. If he makes $6 million a season, his cap hit would now be $4.8 million, which would give the Canucks another $1.2 million to sign their free agents or bring in the missing piece for a plaoff drive. You can find examples of this for every team in the league.

The problem with this is what happens to players who have played 10, 15, or 20 years with the same team? The answer: cap the deduction at 50 percent. In this case, Mike Modano, who has been with the Stars for his entire career, 20 years now, wouldn't get a 100-percent deduction in his cap hit. It would be 50 percent. If Modano was still worth $5 million a season, you could pay him that amount, but his cap hit would only be $2.5 million: He gets his money, the Stars get the cap relief, and the fans get to see Modano finish his career with the team that drafted him.

The point of this is to encourage player development and building through the draft. If you have a potential free agent who's been with your team for five years looking for $5 million a season, and you have the option of another, similar player also looking for $5 million, it makes it a lot better to re-sign your own player at a $3.75 million vs. $5 million cap hit for the same money. This would not only breed loyalty, but it would give the teams the chance they need to keep their teams together and make the smart signings to add the little pieces they need to become contenders. Instead of building through free agency, teams would now be building through the draft, and the emphasis on strong player development would be stronger.

The NHL clearly has a problem with the lifelong contracts creating a cap loophole, and I'm sure it will be one area they will try to address during negotiations for the next CBA. Still, I'm sure teams will want to address the issue of their homegrown players being forced out, and this is one possiblity I'd love to see come to fruition. No one knows what will happen, but I truly believe that this could be a great solution that would make the NHL much, much better overall.

Canucks This Week: October 14th, 2009

2009-10-14T22:34:00.004-06:00

After three straight losses to open the season, the Canucks finally managed a big win over Montreal and then followed it up with a shootout win over the Stars. Their hard work from the first three games has finally paid off; Now we can only hope that the long layoff doesn't take away all the momentum they should be building up. We'll find out on Friday when they take on the Flames in Calgary.

Power Rankings: What a Joke

The ESPN, TSN, and Sportsnet Power Rankings this week all place the Canucks in the bottom third of the league. That's ridiculous. Not only did they just win two games in a row, but in their first three games, they --for the most part -- outplayed their opponents and only lost because the bounces didn't go their way. How does a team outplay their opponents but still lose, and then outplay their opponents and win two straight games barely advance in these standings, but a team (Calgary) that's been getting outplayed in every game but manages to win their first four -- and then get beaten badly in game number five -- stay at the top? This just goes to show what many Canucks fans have suspected for a long, long time: the media doesn't like the Canucks. Here's hoping they can keep the wins coming against Calgary and Minnesota this weekend and get the respect they deserve.

Injuries: Should we be worried yet?

I posted last week that we shouldn't panic over the Canucks' slow start. I was right! They came out strong against the Canadiens, and then a strong showing against a determined Dallas team gave the boys another win. Now, the big problem facing the Canucks are the recent injuries to Daniel Sedin and Sami Salo. I don't think anyone was really surprised to hear about number 38 for number 6, but it will hurt. How much? Well, that depends on how well Rome plays in his absence until Matthieu Schneider comes back. We -- that is, Canucks fans -- have been bragging since the end of August about how deep the Canucks' defence is this season, so now is their chance to show it. Shneider will be back in six games, so I'm hoping the boys can manage a 4-1-1 record in that time.

Losing Daniel Sedin could be a terrible thing for this team, even worse than losing Luongo last season. Nothing needs to be said about how well the twins play together, but how well will Henrik play without Daniel? This could potentially sideline three players for a month: Daniel, Henrik, and their right-winger. Even though there is real potential for disaster with this injury, I think it could be a blessing in disguise, especially since it's this early in the season. What better opportunity for all the on-the-bubble players to show everyone what they're capable of and show all the critics that the Canucks don't really need to be so dependent on the twins for offence? A few AHL call-ups could really shine, and this could end up making the future of this team even brighter than it already is.

Now we have Pavol Demitra. It was announced a few days ago that his recovery isn't going well, and we may now be looking at December for a return to the lineup. Demitra might be the current goat among Canucks fans, but I have always liked him as a player, and I think his contributions to the team are seriously underrated. However, I commented to some people at the beginning of the season that the only way the Canucks could stay under the cap this year would be to get rid of his $4 million salary; I'm really beginning to wonder if this "delayed recovery" isn't actually a postponed retirement announcement or a Derian Hatcher-esque permanent placement on the LTIR for cap relief. If he comes back healthy, the second line will be stronger, but if he can't return, I have little doubt that the team will still find ways to win.

The injuries to four key players could hurt the team, but it's better to have it happen early in the season than later on. This will give the team a chance to gel and get back to the basics, which should pay off dividends when the whole team is healthy again. It's still early enough in the season that I'll say again, "Don't panic!" The Canucks will be just fine.

Final Thoughts

One thing I've noticed about the Canucks this year is how great the power-play has looked. They're calm, not throwing pucks away, and keeping the puck in the offensive zone -- all the time. This is how a power-play should look. If they can keep it up all year, things will be very good. I can't remember the last time I've been so excited when this team has been on the PP. Now, the PK hasn't been quite as impressive, but I really think it's just a matter of early-season rust; they'll find their game again, and as I mentioned above, I really think these injuries will force it on them.

That's it for me today. Check back next week for more analysis on the Canucks' progress so far, and check tomorrow for HockeyTalk, musings on the rest of the NHL. My podcast will be coming soon!

Canucks This Week: Highlights October 5th to 11th

2009-10-13T22:00:00.002-06:00

Here's my highlight video for the second week of the Canucks 2009-10 season. Comments and feedback greatly appreciated!

HockeyTalk: Season predictions, part 2 of 2

2009-10-08T00:59:00.004-06:00

All right, last evening I posted my predictions for the Eastern conference. Now, I have to admit: I'm a Canucks fan, and I live in Edmonton. Apart from knowing that Ovechkin is the most exciting player in the game, Brodeur is a pretty good goalie, Crosby is overrated, and that the leafs gets shoved down every Canadian's throat even though they suck, I don't really follow the East that much. I hope my predictions are right, if for no reason other than bragging rights.

I do, however, keep a close watch on the West, so I have a bit more at stake here with part two of this weeks HockeyTalk: Western conference predictions.

Western Conference

For the past few ears, the best teams in the league have played in the Western Conference. The top teams in the West are better than any team in the East by far. They play a more intense, more physical game, and the winner of the Conference finals is inevitably more deserving of their chance playing for the Cup than any team out of the East. This year, we have six (debatably five) teams at the top, more or less guaranteed a playoff spot, another seven that will be fighting for the remaining two spots, and two teams that will be stuck at the bottom. Let's begin.

Top Teams:

Barring disaster, these teams are the creme of the crop and will undoubtedly finish in the top spots in the conference this year. Any one of these teams has an equal chance to make it to the Finals.

Anaheim
The Ducks have been one of the top teams in the conference for a while now. Even though they've lost a few key players, they still have a strong, balanced team with good goaltending, and they are not a team to be overlooked. If Heatley and Thornton don't click in San Jose, look for the ducks to take the Pacific.
Calgary
Calgary has a good goaltender who's been getting worse for the past four years, a great top-four on defense who will get burnt out and/or hurt playing so many minutes every night, a good, but aging, power forward whose production has been declining steadily for the past several years, no offensive depth, and an AHL-caliber defense beyond the top four. If you haven't guessed, I don't like Calgary's chances this year. The only reason I keep them in the list of top Western teams is because of the new coach. If Sutter is as good as he thinks he is, he'll get the team playing more responsibly in their own end, which will help Kiprusoff's numbers and will lessen the importance of the offensive depth. Only time will tell, I guess. I'll revisit this issue at the halfway point of the season. For now, I'll predict the Flames finishing second in the Northwest and sixth in the West. However, they are on the decline and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them struggling to make the eigth spot in the conference this year or next.
Chicago
A team on the rise, and they have this year to win it all before the cap makes it all just a memory. Look for the 'Hawks to play hungry this year, trying to get improve on last year, especially with the confidence and experience they gained from it. Hossa curse? Don't buy into it. He'll help them, but his ridiculous contract is just one of the reasons they're going to be completely screwed in the years to come. It was nice for a struggling Original Six team to get a resurgence in the fan base, but I highly doubt it's going to last a long time. The biggest question mark for this team comes in net. Huet might not be able to shoulder the load this year, and they don't have the Bulin Wall to take over this time around.
Detroit
The Wings, like a much more successful version of the Flames, are on their way down in the natural cycle every team faces over its history, but they're still the Detroit F***ing Red Wings. They'll still be a top team. They'll still be a threat to win the division, the conference, the league, and the cup. As every professional analyst has already said, I'm keeping them as a favorite until they miss the playoffs.
San Jose
A good team got better with the addition of Dany Heatley. Love him or hate him, it should be exciting to see him playing with Joe Thornton every night. They lost some depth players in Cheecho and Michalek, and losing Erhoff might hurt them, but on the whole, San Jose is still the team to beat in the West -- in the regular season. As far as I'm concerned, they still lack the heart to win a round in the playoffs, and I'll continue to hold that opinion until they prove otherwise.
Vancouver
They lost Sundin, Ohlund, and some depth players. Losing Ohlund will hurt. I really wish they would have kept him around. Getting older or not, he was a rock on that team. Much in the same way Tampa is going to use him to mentor Hedman, they should have kept him around to keep showing Edler the ropes -- not to mention the odd two-hander to the shin when a cheap Finn decides to throw a flying elbow. However, with Erhoff and Schneider, the defence is more mobile and will generate a lot more offense, so after a short adjustment period, I think they'll be all right. I'll still miss the man, but I guess it was time to move on. Sundin? His leadership and offensive contribution will be missed, but it's honestly for the best that he's moved on. His heart clearly isn't into it anymore, and it opens up the space for the young players to really solidify their positions as the future of this team. They won the division two of the last three years -- and would have made it three straight if injuries hadn't done them in in '08 -- and they've only improved in the key areas. Gillis has done a fantastic job with this team, and if they aren't there already, they're only a couple of key pieces away from being a contender. The only question mark is the coaching. I'm not saying Vigneault is necessarily a bad coach, but he needs to keep coaching this team the same way every game, no matter the opponent -- coach a team to win, and they'll win; coach a team to not lose, and they might not lose. It's better to go into a game confident that if you play your game better than your opponent plays theirs, you'll win. I'll add more to this thought later on in the season. As far as I see it, the Canucks are in the best position they've been in for years to take the division, possibly the conference, and potentially go to the finals for the first time in 16 years. Here's hoping.

Middle of the Pack: The Good

Now, I don't necessarily think there are really four teams in the West that will fight for two spots with three "decent" teams fighting for nothing. I'm splitting the middle teams into two groups for consistency's sake. In reality, there are seven teams this year fighting for two spots, which will mean for an interesting storyline in the playoffs as these teams might be fired up, having played playoff hockey for half the season already (see Edmonton '06), or they'll be so burnt out from the drive that they roll over as soon as the playoffs begin (see St. Louis '09). Here are the top four of the middle seven.

Columbus
A great upcoming goaltender with tremendous upside, a great young power forward franchise player, and all the potential in the world after having made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The Central division is the toughest in the conference; gone are the days when Detroit could easily walk away with divisional points against the Hawks, Jackets, and Blues. The Predators are still in trouble, but with four of five teams potentially finishing in the top eight, this will be a great competition.
Edmonton
At the end of the '08 season, when Edmonton nearly made the playoffs on the srength of their young players, a lot of people had them pegged to make the playoffs last season. Unfortunately for them, they were stuck with a bad coach, and they couldn't get anything off the ground in '09. This year, the same rookies will have (hopefully) learned from their mistakes, and with a couple of new coaches, I think they could really be a threat in the West this year. Not only that, but they've improved in net. No offense to Roloson, but Khabibulin is a top goalie in this league, and he has a cup under his belt. The Oilers are a team to watch for this year.
Los Angeles
It's an outside shot. Like I said, there are seven teams that will fight for two spots this season, and L.A. is one of them. I put them in this list because I think they're just a little bit better than Nashville, Minnesota, and Dallas. They'll likely just miss the playoffs this year, finishing ninth or 10th in the conference. They'll return to form as a top team in the league pretty soon, but that's still a year or two away.
St. Louis
The team with the best second-half record in the league last year ran out of gas in the playoffs. They're refueled this year, and with healthy Kariya and Johnson, they stand the chance to be even better. The obstacles for them are still Detroit and Chicago, so I expect them to finish fifth or sixth in the West. Just like Chicago, it's nice to see a team regain their fanbase; it would be even nicer to see them hold on to it.

Midddle of the Pack: The Bad
These teams are sitting at the bottom end of the seven fighting for two spots, but they could still just as easily sneak in to the playoffs.

Dallas
Maybe they won't admit it, but they're in full rebuild mode now. Modano needs to join Fleury, Sakic, and Sundin and hang up the skates. This team will get back to the top at some point; whether they do it in Dallas or not is another question.
Minnesota
They lost Gaborik and replaced him with... Havlat. A new coach is promising a more exciting style of play, but will it work? I doubt it. They have a good goalie, but I think his stats were inflated by Lemaire's trap system. The Wild will not improve on last year's finish.
Nashville
What to say about Nashville? They're not the worst team in the conference. That's about it. Playing in the East, or in another division in the West, might help since they're really not that bad, but being the worst team in the best division is just going to hurt them in the standings. Bettman's casualty, number three? As I said earlier, only time will tell.

Bottom Feeders: The Ugly
The truly pathetic teams, teams that will be fighting for that first-overall pick next summer.
Colorado
How the mighty have fallen. A heartfelt farewell to a truly classy player in Joe Sakic brought them a momentum-fuelled second win, but it's going to be a long, long season in Denver. Like a lot of these teams, they might turn it around, but it won't be happening soon.
Phoenix
Sure, everyone can talk about how they were a playoff team until the All-Star break last year, but they still missed the playoffs. They'll miss the playoffs again. Frankly, all the issues they have off the ice will result in nothingg more than a complete collapse in the desert; I'm thinking they'll be lucky to post 15 wins on the season.

Division Leaders

Pacific: San Jose
Runner-up: Anaheim
Northwest: Vancouver
Runner-up: Calgary
Central: Detroit
Runner-up: Chicago

Clarence Campbell trophy: Chicago. Or Vancouver.

Finally, my Stanley Cup prediction: Boston beats Chicago in a classic Original Six showdown.

HockeyTalk: Season predictions, part 1 of 2

2009-10-07T19:56:00.003-06:00

Well, we’re now a week into the NHL regular season, and despite a few surprises, the old cliché still applies: the more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite their offseason moves, Toronto still can’t win. No one in Phoenix seems to know or care about their hockey team, and this team can actually win some games for a change. Alex Ovechkin is on pace for 246 points. Calgary is getting outplayed by their opponents but still finding a way to win; Nikolai Khabibulin scored a game-winning goal for the Flames, and the Canucks are outplaying their opponents but still losing. Based on the first-week headlines, it’s shaping up to be a great season!

It’s a bit late, but here’s my season prediction. There’s no point predicting who will finish where in the conference this year, but a legit look at the real contenders, the possibilities, and the also-rans. Hell, I might as well give my choices for the division and conference leaders. Here goes.

Eastern Conference

In the East, we’re looking at four teams with a decent shot, seven in the middle of the pack – and those can be split in two groups – and four bottom feeders.

Top teams:

These four will make the playoffs. Smart money would be put on them finishing in the top 4.

Boston

They were a good team last year, and another year together will just make them better. Thomas is getting the recognition he deserves as a top goalie (I would consider him the post-lockout, Canadian Hasek); Chara has always been great, and they’ve got a whole lot of forward depth that can really put this team forward. Look for them to do a lot of damage and to be deadly hungry for playoff success this season (ala Pittsburgh two years ago).

Pittsburgh

Defending champs won’t be going away any time soon. Will they repeat? Probably not. Will they make the finals again? Probably not. Will they be dominant all through the regular season? Absolutely. No team with that much offensive talent wouldn’t be, but the lengthy season coupled with the Cup hangover will be too much for them to handle. Not only that, but Philly and Boston will be hungry to take them down.

Philadelphia

The Broad Street Bullies are back (did they ever go away?). Adding Pronger, like him or not, just makes a good team better. The only question mark here is Emery. If he plays the way he did in 2007, the Flyers will be deadly. If his off-ice actions are that much of a factor, the team will still make it into the playoffs, but look for an early exit in the post-season.

Washington

As I said above, Ovechkin is on pace for 246 points this year. Obviously, he won’t keep that up – but damn, it would be nice to see him do it – but the most exciting player in the league can win games on his own. When he can’t, you still can’t count out the supporting cast the Capitals have. The only worry is their best player getting burnt out by the time the playoffs come around, a concern usually reserved for the 70-plus-game goalies.

Middle of the pack: The Good

Seven teams fighting for four playoff spots, but there’s too much missing with these teams to make a deep drive. With that said, I think there are three dark horses in this group.

Carolina

Inconsistency has been this team’s trademark over the years, but they have the experience from the Cup win in ’06 to drive them. If they find that strength again, they’ll win the division and go deep in the playoffs thanks in large part to the potentially Olympian play of Cam Ward.

New Jersey

Never count out a team with Marty Brodeur in net. Bringing back Lemaire means more boring hockey in East Rutherford, but it also carries the potential for an excellent season.

Tampa Bay

Stamkos, Hedman – with a great mentor in Ohlund – supporting St. Louis and Lecavalier. Like Carolina, this team has been inconsistent recently, but if they can find some chemistry, they’ll not only make the playoffs, but they’ll go far.

Middle of the Pack: The Bad

Basically, if things go the right way for the above three teams, these four will be fighting for one playoff spot in the East.

Buffalo

What the hell happened to this team? They used to be a threat every year, and now they just can’t seem to win consistently. You can’t say it’s the competition in their division. Excluding Boston, they should be better than the other three teams. Maybe this is the year the results echo what they have on paper.

Montreal

Probably the best out of this bunch, but you’d think they would have learned a lesson from Toronto and the Rangers: you can’t build teams through free agency. They’re going to have all kinds of problems developing chemistry this year, not to mention getting beaten up regularly by the Bruins, Leafs, and Flyers. It’s going to be a tough season for Habs fans.

New York Rangers

They’ve lost a few players, but they’ve brought in a few as well. They won’t be a joke this year, but they’re far removed from being a serious threat. It’s too bad, too – Lundqvist is a fantastic goalie who deserves a better team in front of him.

Ottawa

They got rid of the Heatley drama, but he will be missed. Kovalev, Michalek, and Cheecho should give them some scoring depth, and they did start to turn things around last season with Clouston, but that’s the only reason I don’t place them in the bottom-feeder category. Sad how quickly the mighty have fallen.

Bottom Feeders: The Ugly

Go ahead, count these teams out. No one will judge you. Except maybe Leafs fans.

Atlanta

It’s a shame that Ilya Kovalchuk can’t play for a better team in a better market, but that’s Bettman’s NHL for ‘ya. This is a team that would be first one my list of candidates for contraction.

Florida

They almost made the playoffs last year, but they just don’t have the team to do anything this time with Tampa, Carolina, and Washington to compete with in the division. They lost Bouwmeester; there are problems with attendance and ownership, so they won’t be able to go get the help they need to push further. Another Bettman casualty. Too bad, too. I’ve always liked the Panthers.

New York Islanders

They might be on the way up, but it’s a long time and a lot of early draft picks away. They probably won’t be playing on Long Island the next time they make the playoffs.

Toronto

Memo to Brian Burke: you won the Cup in Anaheim with a big, physical team, but that was a big, physical team with some offensive talent, two of the best defensemen in the league, and all-star goaltending. The bruisers were the last piece of the puzzle, not the first – or the only – one. Let’s make it five straight without the playoffs. Maybe they'll finally figure out that the plural of 'leaf' is 'leaves', not 'leafs'.

Division leaders:

Northeast: Boston.

Runner-up: Montreal (but surprising to make the playoffs)

Atlantic: Philadelphia.

Runner-up: Pittsburgh

Southeast: Washington.

Runner-up: Carolina

Prince of Wales trophy: Boston. Maybe Philly.

That’s enough for now. Check tomorrow for Part 2: The West.

Canucks This Week: video highlights

2009-10-07T19:40:00.004-06:00

All right, I put together my first video of Canucks weekly highlights for September 28th to October 4th. Check it out here

Comments always appreciated!

Canucks This Week: September 28 – October 4

2009-10-05T23:50:00.003-06:00

Welcome to my blog. I’m here to talk about the NHL’s Vancouver Canucks, and occasionally about the NHL in general. I hope you enjoy reading! Comments are always welcome.

No time for panic… yet!

So the Canucks lost their first two games of the year – and as I post this, they’ve now dropped a third straight – and with all the high expectations placed on them by fans and the media, a lot of people are getting worried about how this team will fare. Mark my words: there’s nothing to worry about. I’ve maintained for years that the first 20 games of the season have no bearing on how a team will look at the end of the year. Teams are still trying to gel and develop chemistry, so even though the points are important, I’d much rather see my team go 5-15 in the first 20 games to follow up going 40-20 in the next 60 games then have that reversed. I remember all too fondly the late ‘90s when the Canucks would get off to a great start only to collapse later in the year and miss the playoffs. They’ll be fine.

They haven’t been playing badly. With the exception of the first period against Calgary, which was embarrassing to the point I won’t even discuss it here, they’ve been playing hard, playing strong, and playing like winners… only to get stopped by a hot goalie. The bounces will start to go their way soon. Calgary struggled to beat Vancouver and Edmonton in their first two games. When the Canucks and Oilers take their early losses to improve on the basics, they’ll come out stronger the next time they play Calgary who, conversely, won’t bother making any major adjustments: this is as good as they’re going to be all season.

Kiprusoff kept the Flames alive in the third period on Thursday. He’s going to get burnt out because, honestly, there’s no way McElhinney will be able to win enough games for the team. As much as Sutter wants to give Mikka some rest, they won’t be able to sacrifice the wins. Anderson was great on Saturday, robbing the Canucks on many occasions. Once the Canucks get a few bounces and a bit of confidence from a win, Luongo will come around and we’ll start seeing the numbers get a little higher in the W column.

Why so surprised?

Speaking of Luongo, this is his fourth year in Vancouver, and he has struggled in October for three straight years. Why is everyone so shocked that he’s struggling early this season? Do they really think that the Olympics are enough of a draw for him to play completely differently in the first month? They said it on Sportsnet tonight: he’ll struggle in October and then turn it around in November, breaking more franchise records as he hits his stride. The fact of the matter is that October isn’t the time when Luongo is going to win games for the Canucks; conversely, this is the time when the team is going to have to win games for him as he finds his stride. It sucks, sure, but that’s the way it is, and we’ve known that for three – going on four – seasons. This is still a team to be reckoned with. Once Louie gets going, the rest of the league had better be careful.

That’s it for the first edition of Canucks This Week. Coming tomorrow: HockeyTalk, with my thoughts on the rest of the NHL to date, including my predictions for the end of the season; Canucks This Week’s first video highlights on YouTube; and (time permitting) HockeyTalk: Live on blogtalkradio.com. Comments are always appreciated!